Punxsutawney Phil Makes Groundhog Day Prediction. But How Often Does He Actually Get It Right?

 Punxsutawney Phil once again predicted Groundhog Day on Friday and after not seeing his shadow, declared that we are in early spring.

The groundhog – who has been famously predicting how long winter will last since 1887 – came out of his burrow in Pennsylvania, and in front of a crowd of fans, predicted that things were about to warm up.

“Good news this Groundhog Day. “Early spring is coming,” a proclamation read at Gobblers Knob, thrilling the crowd.

However, we took a look at how often the beloved forecasters get it right compared to the US national temperature and were surprised to find that it doesn't happen very often.

In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration went back and looked at the times Phil predicted his shadow predicted 6 more weeks of winter and the times he didn't and he was only right a few times Was.

A chart posted on X from NOAA satellites states that since 1887, groundhogs have predicted colder winters 107 times. In contrast, he has claimed that early spring is coming towards us only 21 (counting 2024) times, and 10 other times it was not recorded whether he saw its shadow or not.

Taking a deeper look at the data, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club has kept records of the furry rodent's predictions over the last century and they found that Phil has an accuracy rate of about 40%, the New York Post noted.

In recent years, it appears that Phil has been right about half-way. Phil sees his shadow and predicts more cold weather in 2021. But according to NOAA, February 2021 was the coldest since 1989 and March was warmer than normal.

And then in 2022, the beloved prophet saw his shadow, but according to NOAA, February temperatures were slightly below normal, but March was above average.

However, this time, Phil may have nailed it as the National Weather Service is predicting that the months of February and March 2024 will bring "above normal temperatures" for the central part of the country.

The Farmers' Almanac predicts temperatures will be "warmer than normal in the Deep South, southern Plains and Pacific Northwest," but cooler than normal elsewhere. It also claimed that US precipitation would be "nearly above normal" across much of the country.

No comments:

Powered by Blogger.